Jonathan Dodd‘s latest column. Guest opinion articles do not necessarily reflect the views of the publication. Ed
Ever since I was old enough to stay up all night, two events became fixed in my diary. Every year the Oscars, and every five years, a General Election. For a while, back in the Eighties, or maybe the early Nineties, I stayed up to watch the Superbowl, when they were making a serious attempt to popularise American Football over here. But it never stuck.
I just didn’t take to it, in a similar way, I suspect, to the lack of enthusiasm Americans manage to raise for our own version of Football. Even calling it Soccer instead hasn’t made it popular.
People are going to do what people are going to do
It’s interesting how various countries obstinately stick with their own sports regardless of the opinions of others. And countries also obstinately resist the attempts to popularise sports that they feel are alien. I don’t know whether holding the Football World Cup in a country that’s too hot for stadiums unless they’re air-conditioned will be a success or just a huge gesture to the worship of money either. People are going to do what people are going to do, and trying to make them do otherwise often falls on stony ground. Like shotgunned songbirds in Malta.
Occasionally, though, things start to change. Even things that we thought were fixed in stone for our conceivable lifetimes. Suddenly we’re in the middle of a storm of uncertainty in our political lives, which seems to have come out of nowhere. For all of my own life there have been two certainties. 1. There’ll always be a Conservative or a Labour government. 2. Change will never happen. I’ve been arguing for change in our political system, among other things, for decades, without, frankly, much expectation of any progress at all.
In a sort of froth of excitement
And suddenly it’s here. Change has crept up on me and I never saw it coming. I’ve been following the news and the build-up towards this next election in a sort of froth of excitement, and I can’t wait to be able to vote and then stay up all night watching the results come in. And for the first time ever, as far as I can see, nobody has the faintest idea what’s going to happen, because the voting’s only the first part of the process.
When that particular dust has settled, the parties left standing will have to sit down and talk to each other, giving and taking, until a group with enough votes collectively manages to form the next government. And nobody, but nobody, knows what that group will look like or be made up of. I don’t even care that I finished a sentence there with a preposition, I’m just too excited!
Denying ourselves that buzz is very bad for us
I know that some people don’t like change. They prefer things to stay the same, and in certain circumstances I agree with them, but generally I don’t think that things staying the same does us much good. Just because a lot of people think that sitting at home watching television is the perfect life, that isn’t the end of the story. Sitting at home encourages bad habits and shortens your life, for one thing, because we’re not built for sloth and stillness.
We crave calm and quiet and rest because they’re so much easier than having to think and make decisions and take action and keep alert. But in reality we’re genetically prepared for activity and movement, and denying ourselves that buzz is very bad for us. Hence the dramatic rise in lifestyle illnesses and physical problems that come from too much civilisation and not enough exercise. So a certain amount of effort and sweat and scary stuff, like the spices in our food, makes for a more interesting life.
Luckily for me, these risks aren’t life-threatening
I’m going to do something here that’s a bit of a risk. I’m going to make some predictions about what might happen and what might be going on under the surface during this election. Luckily for me, these risks aren’t life-threatening, but they’ll probably cause me some embarrassment when they all turn out to be completely wrong. But here goes anyway. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
I predict that there’ll be a minority government. I think it’ll be headed by Ed Miliband. I never bought the idea that he’s a fool. That’s just a lot of propaganda put about by the other side. I think he’s been playing the long game, soaking up the blows and antagonism without pushing back, waiting for his moment.
Like Roman Emperors throwing bread towards the plebs at the Games
I think he’s going to seem more and more reasonable as the days count down towards the big day, and I think the other side’s going to become wilder and more extravagant in the things they throw towards the electorate, like Roman Emperors throwing bread towards the plebs at the Games.
I think that people are going to go into the polling booths with one idea and then their pencils will hover. Some will decide they’ve stopped trusting the party they’ve always voted for, and some of them will feel sorry for Ed, being bullied like that, or they’ll decide they admire his constraint. And he’ll do better than predicted. Similarly, they might decide that this time they’ll vote Green, because they like the candidate, or because they never have before. Or any of the other possibilities.
The number of votes nationally will become much more significant
I also think Ed won’t get enough MPs to form a government, and that he’ll have to work with whoever he can. Mainly that’s the SNP, who’ll wring a promise of another referendum from him. This time, I predict, they’ll win. And the Welsh Nationalists will do well too. Everyone likes their leaders. We all know that even ridiculous-looking people walk up to the door of No. 10 and suddenly they look like Prime Ministers. The point is not how ridiculous they look, but what they actually do when they’re there.
I also think that any party entering into coalition or working-arrangement with Ed will demand PR. This time, as the Greens are saying, the number of votes nationally will become much more significant. Any party with a few percent of the vote will be demanding a proportional number of MPs. Ten percent of the vote should get you 65 MPs. I’m pretty sure that any smaller party will demand this as a price of their support. And I expect they’ll throw in getting rid of Trident and becoming closer to Europe.
Politics is a game even rougher than American Football
I think that the Conservatives will get the largest number of MPs but won’t find anyone to join them. I think there’ll be a bit of a power struggle and I think that they’ll elect Boris as leader. I’m not sure it’ll do them any good, because I think they might split in two anyway. Let’s face it, this is a party that struggles to be a home for the likes of Ken Clarke as well as the rabid anti-Europeans. If they can’t guarantee power any more, they’ll regroup into smaller parties.
I think that UKIP won’t do half as well as they thought they would a few weeks ago. Somehow they haven’t managed to make themselves into a real contender party yet, just a protest vote. The Lib Dems will do badly, because of student loans. That’s tough, but this is politics, which is a game even rougher than American Football. But they’ll be back.
You may know what that means, but I couldn’t possibly comment
And how about our dear old Island? This prediction is hard to write down, because it goes against my grain. I think the Conservative candidate will be re-elected. I think he will step down before the next election, and the Tories will put up the candidate they always wanted to take his place, and I think they’ll be counting on their large voting base to carry that through.
You may know what that means, but I couldn’t possibly comment.
My head says that’ll happen, but my heart is in another place, and I really hope I’m completely wrong. Anything is possible, so get on out there and VOTE!
If you have, thank you for reading this.
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