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Six IW Primary schools may close – declining numbers of children the cause

Few on the Isle of Wight want schools to close, but the straight truth is that the number of children starting school has been dropping – and are projected to continue to drop. 

Examples of this are in 2018 1,404 children started reception on the Island. It’s expected that this figure will drop to 876 by 2027.

Consult on closing six primary schools
Therefore, the council’s cabinet is considering a recommendation to consult on closing six primary schools.

Jump to list of schools being consulted on closure.

Risks condemning pupils to a mediocre education
The voices of many headteachers and governors on the Isle of Wight have been clear on the issue of surplus school places for some time, asking for a clear strategic vision for the whole Island. They have warned that keeping too many schools open risks condemning pupils to a mediocre education.

The council also believes that for far too long the oversupply of places in primary schools has had a negative impact on the standard of education pupils receive on the Island, preventing them from having the best opportunity for the highest quality teaching and learning within well-equipped schools.

IWC: Need to take the necessary steps to effect change
Island children deserve the best and therefore we need to take the necessary steps to effect change, while also recognising that schools are much more than places where children and young people go to get an education — they can also be a core part of the local community.

It’s not just the council which believes immediate action is needed to pull the Isle of Wight out of the bottom ten per cent of local authorities for key performance indicators — it’s the people who best understand education on the Island: our dedicated school leaders.

Island’s first comprehensive Education Strategy
In July, the council’s new education department published a draft of the Island’s first comprehensive Education Strategy – an ambitious blueprint to transform our school system from one that consistently underperforms compared to national trends, to one that provides a world-class education.

By 2030, the council’s vision is that all children on the Island will be equipped with the skills and aspirations to access opportunities of their choice.

Why change is needed — the data
The reality is there are too many primary schools on the Island for the number of primary-age children.

Nationally, birth rates have reduced to their lowest level since 1941. The drop is having a significant impact on the Island where, by 2027, just 876 children are expected to start reception — a considerable fall from 1,404 in 2018.

1,898 unfilled school places
As of October 2023, there were 1,898 unfilled school places across the Island. By September 2027, this number is forecast to rise to 3,056.

The financial impact is stark and severe: for every empty seat, schools lose more than £4,500, affecting resources, opportunities and the quality of education children receive. The ongoing trend indicates that by March 2027, 22 primary schools may face budget deficits, potentially amounting to a cumulative £7.4 million or more.

Surplus places mean schools struggle to maintain a broad and high-quality curriculum. Falling rolls also make planning and staffing decisions difficult, with schools potentially having to make year on year redundancies or having to restructure.

The proposals
The council is considering a recommendation to consult on closing six primary schools, however, alongside this, it is hoped five of these locations can be repurposed to provide support for the education of Island children as part of the drive to improve standards, including specialist SEND provision and teacher training facilities.

It must be emphasised that at this stage Cabinet are only being asked to approve a consultation period and not to make a decision around closures or changes.

Schools were selected based on several factors such as the quality of provision they provide, where the children who attend the school live, local house building and financial viability.

The options proposed are (no closures are proposed to complete before September 2025):

  • Cowes: Closure of Cowes Primary School with pupils able to join Gurnard Primary School (or to preference an alternative school). Blackberry Lane Pre-School would remain at the current site and offered the option of expanding utilising part of the school.
  • Newport: Closure of Arreton CE Primary School with pupils able to join Barton Primary School (or to preference an alternative school). St George’s Nursery and Pre-School would remain at the current site and offered the option of expanding utilising part of the school.
  • Ryde Town: Closure of Oakfield CE Primary School with pupils able to join Greenmount or St Mary’s Catholic primary schools (or to preference an alternative school).
  • Sandown and Shanklin: Closure of Brading CE Primary School with pupils able to join The Bay or St Helens primary schools (or to preference an alternative school).
  • Ventnor: Closure of Wroxall Primary school with pupils able to join St Francis Primary School (or to preference an alternative school).
  • Ventnor: Closure of Godshill Primary School with pupils able to join Niton or St Francis primary schools (or to preference an alternative school).

A reduction in the Published Admissions Number (PAN) is also proposed for consultation at:

  • The Bay CE School (from 60 to 45);
  • Greenmount (from 60 to 45).

Bacon: We are facing some incredibly difficult decisions
Councillor Jonathan Bacon, Cabinet member for children’s services, said,

“Our children are the Island’s adults of the future, and the Island needs a future workforce that can adapt and innovate for whatever that future might bring.

“Ultimately, a high-quality education is a key building block for a future that is better for individuals and society as a whole.

“Our results are extremely poor in comparison to other areas and have been for many years. We must do better. The first step is to acknowledge the problem. With our new education department, which is focused solely on Island children, we have been able to do that. This is essential so that we can now work to address the issue rather than side-stepping it, as has been the case for too long.

“As has been made clear, we have serious structural challenges, including, most urgently, the oversupply of places in primary schools.

“Following what the data tells us means we are facing some incredibly difficult decisions on reducing the number of school places across the Island. This is the only way to ensure that we can minimise the long-term negative impact on the Island’s education.”

School leaders and the council have been doing everything they can to manage the situation, including combining different year groups in some schools, and formally reducing and capping reception places. But this hasn’t solved the problem.

Councillor Bacon added,

“None of this is due to any fault of our schools, their leadership teams or staff.

“The problem stems from the national decline in the birth rate.

“It is an issue across the entire country.”

Next steps — important Cabinet meeting
The council’s Cabinet will consider today’s report at a meeting at County Hall on Thursday, 12th September 2024 at 5pm. The meeting will be live streamed via the council’s website.

At that meeting, elected councillors will decide whether to take the proposals forward.

If they do, a comprehensive consultation will follow with many ways and opportunities for people to comment.

This consultation would run from 20th September until 1st November 2024, and further information on this process will be shared if a decision is taken on 12th September.

Councillors will consider the responses at a further meeting in December and decide whether we should look to implement the changes for September 2025.

If and when decisions are made, official notices will be published setting out plans for those schools that will be amended, expanded or closed. Once these notices are published, there is a further six-week period for people to comment.

After this, if applicable, the council will make a final decision on whether to go ahead or not.

Whittaker: What unites everyone is an ambition to improve education outcomes
Ashley Whittaker, the council’s director of children’s education, said,

“Since I joined the Island community in February, it has been my privilege to listen to the views of many people, both children and adults, who care deeply about the Isle of Wight.

“Some share current or recent experiences of school. Others reflect on what worked, and could have been better, when they were younger. I believe that what unites everyone is an ambition to improve education outcomes to reflect the true potential of the Island’s children. This is why we are developing a new Island education strategy.

“Alongside this ambition is a shared acknowledgement that the world is changing, and that education provision must adapt to reflect this. For several years there has been a significant reduction in the number of babies being born on the Island, and a subsequent decline in the number of children entering primary school.

“The prevalence of special educational needs and disabilities has increased, as have needs relating to emotional wellbeing and mental health. These changes in the numbers and needs of our children, require a corresponding adjustment to the Island’s school system.

“Complex and difficult decisions are therefore needed. They are also decisions that are essential to establish the foundations required to deliver a high performing education system, and to improve education outcomes and wider life chances for all children.

“By making these decisions, we will be able to deliver on our shared commitment to fully unlock the potential of the Island’s children and allow them to truly thrive.”

The Cabinet papers are available on the council’s website

Further information on the council’s draft education and school place planning strategies is available here.


Based on a press release from Isle of Wight council and edited by the author