Recent polling data released by cross-party campaign group, Best for Britain, reveals that both of the new Isle of Wight’s constituencies could go to the Labour Party in the next General Election.
Based on the new boundaries – the Isle of Wight is set to have two constituencies by the next General Election – those taking part in the poll were asked, ‘If a general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?’
Labour victory
The baseline MRP (what’s this?) in the polling shows that Labour would be victorious in both seats.
| LAB | LD | CON | REF | GRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East CC | 29.20% | 3.90% | 26.70% | 5.00% | 8.80% |
| West CC | 30.90% | 4.10% | 25.30% | 5.20% | 9.20% |
Don’t knows
However, within the data almost a quarter of those polled on both constituencies (23.8 per cent for West and 24.8 per cent for East) said they didn’t know how they would vote, making it very hard to predict what will happen on polling day.
Reform UK
Best for Britain analysis shows that if Reform UK stands down the Conservatives win the East.
| LAB | LD | CON | REF | GRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East CC | 29.20% | 3.90% | 31.80% | 0.00% | 8.80% |
| West CC | 30.90% | 4.10% | 25.30% | 5.20% | 9.20% |
Tory victory
If current undecided voters vote according to their education profile trends the Conservatives win both seats.
| LAB | LD | CON | REF | GRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East CC | 35.50% | 4.80% | 42.00% | 6.70% | 9.40% |
| West CC | 36.90% | 5.00% | 39.90% | 6.80% | 9.80% |
Hung Parliament
If both of these things happen (not unlikely), Best for Britain’s analysis shows that the Conservatives win both more comfortably. Nationwide, their analysis shows that if both of these things happen, there would be a hung Parliament.
| LAB | LD | CON | REF | GRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East CC | 35.50% | 4.80% | 42.00% | 6.70% | 9.40% |
| West CC | 36.90% | 5.00% | 46.70% | 0.00% | 9.80% |
Comparison with earlier polls
Compared to a poll carried out by Best of Britain in Autumn 2022, when nationally Labour got 42 per cent of the vote, this has now dropped to 35 per cent.
Meanwhile the Conservative Party, in Autumn 2022, had just 18 per cent of the vote. This has now increased to 23 per cent.
For more context about latest polling, across England, Scotland and Wales, visit Best for Britain’s Website.
Other polls
Readers will remember that in Autumn 2022, a YouGov/Times poll released their voting intention map of the UK, using the current boundaries.
This saw Labour holding 54 per cent of the vote if an election were held then, whilst the Conservative Party dropped to 21 per cent of the vote.
Who are Best of Britain?
Best for Britain is a cross-party campaign group working, they say, “for an inclusive, confident and united Britain that is outward looking and respected as a trusted partner on the global stage once again”.
Find out more
For more detail about the boundaries of the two new constituencies see News OnTheWight’s Boundary Review archive.
