Isle of Wight one of 14 areas cited in ‘Covid-19 early-warning model’ paper by Institute of Global Change

The Institute of Global Change paper reveals areas where their Covid-19 Early Warning Model could be used to either ease or tighten social distancing measures. Details within

social distancing

The Isle of Wight has been cited in a paper – produced by the Institute of Global Change – as one of 14 areas where Coronavirus (Covid-19/C19) appears still to be accelerating.

The paper proposes a ‘Covid-19 early-warning model’ to help policymakers make the right decisions on easing of lockdown measures across the country.

Controlling R number
Using Google data on the movement of people and applying modelling of the impact of that movement on the C19 reproduction number – the ‘R’ number you might have heard mentioned in the national news – authors of the paper say the early warning model could allow policymakers to forecast and monitor the effect of easing lockdown measures.

The Isle of Wight is cited among 14 areas where it’s suggested the R number could be reduced by further limiting mobility, ie. enforcing stricter lockdown measures and the movement of people.

The latest number of lab-confirmed C19 cases on the Island is 181.

Increase in movement
Many have noted a marked increase in the number of people out and about on the Isle of Wight in the last two weeks.

Some suggest this is due to the introduction of the Contact Tracing App, while others suggest it comes from confusion over the easing of lockdown measures presented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Sunday 10th May – when the Stay Home message was replaced by Stay Alert. Three days later, those who were not able to work from home were permitted to return to work.

OnTheWight has received several reports of people not adhering to 2m social distancing rules, raising fears that the spread of the virus will see an acceleration in the coming weeks.

Read the paper
Authored by economists, Ian Mulheirn and Christina Palmou, with modelling advice from Dr Nishaal Gooroochurn (Oxford Economics), the Institute of Global Change paper can be found on the Institute’s Website.

Thanks to Julie for the heads-up.

Image: United Nations under CC BY 2.0

Friday, 22nd May, 2020 9:57am



Filed under: Health, Isle of Wight Council, Isle of Wight News, Top story

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14 Comments on "Isle of Wight one of 14 areas cited in ‘Covid-19 early-warning model’ paper by Institute of Global Change"

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Justin Case
On random testing, one in six Londoners apparently test positive for coronavirus antibodies, so they either have, or have had coronavirus. People without a home address on the Island should be blocked from coming over unless they can demonstrate an urgent need. Holidaymakers and second-homers should be told categorically that they are not welcome. Without taking these measures coronavirus will continue to increase on the Island until… Read more »
With C-19 now widespread across the island scapegoating holidaymakers and second homers serves no useful purpose and is positively harmful to our economy. Castigate these people if it makes you feel better but we must all learn to live with the idea of what is in 78% of people (source:BMJ) an asymptomatic infection. Without mass testing for both C-19 antigens (you’ve got it) and antibodies (you’ve had… Read more »
Perhaps the government would like to share the figures so far from use of the App. The Island responded swiftly and with good numbers to give it a go. For instance, how many people have tested positive when reporting symptoms through the App and how many people have been advised to isolate through contact via the App? Can’t be too hard; with a presumed average of 25… Read more »

The IOW cases have doubled in the last month, nothing to do with incoming but hardly anyone distancing now or wearing masks. These simple measures do far more to keep the R down than pretending the “App” will provide a magic protection. Hopefully the App will supplement matters once track and trace operations are in place.

Living on an island, we are in the fortunate position of being able to control mobility to and from the mainland. So why haven’t the authorities been doing more to limit movement during the past nine weeks? Why have some people been allowed to come and stay in holiday homes and second homes during the lockdown? Daytrippers should be easy to spot, buying day return tickets. Surely… Read more »

the various ferry companies do not have the legal powers to question people on the purpose of their travel. Nothing to do with income, all about legality.


I’m always amazed by the comments that relate to the powers people believe that ordinary workers have.
Council officers..ferry drivers..etc.
Just because you may wish that the ferry operators have some sort of stop/question/arrest powers- that cannot possibly be the case under British law.

Justin Case
@Dalek and horace – Sneering at other people’s point of view does not make them wrong. The ferry company can choose to carry whatever passengers it likes and may ask appropriate questions to that end, because it is a private company and the ferry is private property. However, from a more practical point of view, I believe the local authority may ask the Government for permission to… Read more »

Justin, I don’t consider that my comment was sneering, just stating a fact. If you feel it was sneer, that’s down to you.


I wasn’t aware that expressing my opinion was ‘sneering ‘.
The fact is though the local authority hasn’t sought to approach the government to enact a law.
Therefore ferry workers do not have authority to stop people boarding unless a potential crime such as breach of the peace is committed.

Rhos yr Alarch

However if you look at the figures for Shetland, Orkney and the Western Isles cases there have not increased at all for several weeks. So it must be possible to do if the motivation is present…


Precisely my point; the Scottish government enacted the legislation to enable this to happen – from 22nd March from memory.
The English government has not done so. This is not down to the ferry operators or ordinary workers at the ports.

Mark L Francis

I often get a day return rather than a single fare if it works out cheaper.

Mark L Francis

Surely, if you are piloting a detection contact app thing, you might expect the detection rate to go up?