Swathes of the Conservative’s ‘Rural Wall’ are defecting to Labour after years of economic neglect, according to a new report by the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) and Survation.
Polling of more than 1,000 people in England’s 100 most rural constituencies reveals a -18 per cent fall in Tory support and a Labour surge of +16%, putting the Conservatives (41 per cent) and Labour (36 per cent) almost neck-and-neck for the next General Election.
Bob Seely could lose the Isle of Wight to Labour
The Conservatives currently hold 96 of the 100 most rural seats in England, but applying this trend to the 2019 results would see them lose 20 seats in 2024.
This includes Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s South West Surrey seat, Conservative since 1983, which could go to the Lib Dems, while Bob Seely could lose the Isle of Wight to Labour.
What the survey revealed
Despite the historic bond between the Conservatives and rural England, only 36 per cent of those polled agreed the Conservatives ‘understand and respect rural communities and the rural way of life’, with Labour close behind at 31 per cent.
The survey reveals mounting frustration with economic policy and cost-of-living ‘premium’ affecting rural communities. The majority of respondents (69 per cent) agreed the government isn’t doing enough to tackle the cost-of-living crisis in rural areas, and 33 per cent said cost-of-living pressures are affecting the countryside more than urban areas.
Gains could be won by any party
And of the political parties most trusted to stimulate economic growth in rural areas, between the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the largest group of respondents (34 per cent) said ‘don’t know’, suggesting gains could be won by any party that offers an ambitious growth plan for the countryside.
CLA South East represents thousands of farmers, landowners and rural businesses in Kent, Hampshire, Surrey, Sussex, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire and the Isle of Wight.
Bamford: Any party that wants to treat the countryside as a ‘museum’ will be punished
Regional Director Tim Bamford said,
“In recent years, we’ve seen how quickly communities which feel left behind can rewrite the electoral map. In 2024, it could be the countryside’s turn.
“There is a simple truth – no political party has at present shown that it understands, let alone shares, the aspirations of rural communities. The outdated planning regime holding rural businesses back, the lack of affordable housing driving families out, the outdated infrastructure limiting entrepreneurs’ potential, it is all having a devastating impact.
“Any party which is willing to develop a robust and ambitious plan for the rural economy will secure significant support. Any party that wants to treat the countryside as a ‘museum’ will be punished.”
Government neglect has created a cost-of-living “rural premium”
The polling comes after the APPG for Rural Powerhouse published a report revealing how government neglect has created a cost-of-living “rural premium”.
MPs found a shortage of affordable housing, inadequate power infrastructure, and poor connectivity has left rural communities spending 10-20 per cent more on everyday items like fuel, despite wages being 7.5 per cent lower than their urban counterparts.
The first in a series
This CLA and Survation report is the first in a series examining the voting intention of the most rural communities. 12 million voters live in rural areas, representing a significant proportion (16 per cent) of the UK economy.
For more information about the CLA and its work, visit the Website and follow @CLASouthEast on Twitter.
News shared by Michael on behalf of CLA. Ed
