As The Telegraph reported today (Monday), the “most authoritative opinion poll in five years” predicts that the two Isle of Wight constituency seats will be won by the Labour Party at the next General Election
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Labour Party will sweep to power with 385 seats and a 120 seat majority, leaving the Conservatives with just 169 seats. It’s being equated to the 1997 defeat the Conservatives suffered at the ends of Labour, starting the rise of Blair.
“The most credible forecast”
Many people refer to the 2019 election — called by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson — as the Brexit election: a time when many red wall seats switched to Conservative from Labour. This latest survey predicts those seats will be won back by Labour.
The Telegraph says that if there was an election early this year, based on current public opinion, this is the most credible forecast of what would actually happen.
Tactical voting
Many UK experts believe that tactical voting could result in even more losses for the Conservatives than predicted.
Here on the Isle of Wight a new initiative to vote for the People’s Choice is gaining traction. East Wight Primary is a grassroots group that plan to help elect a progressive MP for the new East Wight constituency at the next General Election.
Impact of Reform UK
Reform UK is set to have a massive impact on the General Election — thought likely to take place later in the year — with many pundits believing it will help split the vote.
Although it’s predicted the Reform UK Party will not win any seats, the Telegraph say it will be the “decisive factor in 96 Tory losses”.
Frost: Facing a 1997-style wipeout
Conservative peer Lord Frost, worked with group of Conservative donors who call themselves ‘Conservative Britain Alliance’ to commission the Poll.
He told The Telegraph that the party was facing a 1997-style wipeout.
The director of political analytics at YouGov, Patrick English, says he is “confident this is the best possible model of vote intention, given our data, at this time”.
Prospective parliamentary candidates
Here on the Isle of Wight the current Conservative MP, Bob Seely, has declared he’ll be standing in the IW West seat. Also declared for that seat is the Reform UK candidate, Ian Pickering and Green Party candidate, Cameron Palin.
The Labour Party and Liberal Democrats have yet to confirm their chosen candidates for each constituency, although it is widely thought that IW Councillor Richard Quigley will be selected to stand against Bob Seely.
So far in IW East, the only declared candidates are Conservative IW Councillor Joe Robertson, Green Party’s Vix Lowthion and Reform UK’s Sarah Morris.
The survey
Read The Telegraph article in full by heading over to their website.
