The Isle of Wight has been cited in a paper – produced by the Institute of Global Change – as one of 14 areas where Coronavirus (Covid-19/C19) appears still to be accelerating.
The paper proposes a ‘Covid-19 early-warning model’ to help policymakers make the right decisions on easing of lockdown measures across the country.
Controlling R number
Using Google data on the movement of people and applying modelling of the impact of that movement on the C19 reproduction number – the ‘R’ number you might have heard mentioned in the national news – authors of the paper say the early warning model could allow policymakers to forecast and monitor the effect of easing lockdown measures.
The Isle of Wight is cited among 14 areas where it’s suggested the R number could be reduced by further limiting mobility, ie. enforcing stricter lockdown measures and the movement of people.
The latest number of lab-confirmed C19 cases on the Island is 181.
Increase in movement
Many have noted a marked increase in the number of people out and about on the Isle of Wight in the last two weeks.
Some suggest this is due to the introduction of the Contact Tracing App, while others suggest it comes from confusion over the easing of lockdown measures presented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Sunday 10th May – when the Stay Home message was replaced by Stay Alert. Three days later, those who were not able to work from home were permitted to return to work.
OnTheWight has received several reports of people not adhering to 2m social distancing rules, raising fears that the spread of the virus will see an acceleration in the coming weeks.
Read the paper
Authored by economists, Ian Mulheirn and Christina Palmou, with modelling advice from Dr Nishaal Gooroochurn (Oxford Economics), the Institute of Global Change paper can be found on the Institute’s Website.
Thanks to Julie for the heads-up.
Image: United Nations under CC BY 2.0
