Volcanic Ash Could Be Over The Island 6pm Tonight

… the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres are telling people.

You’ll have heard about the Icelandic volcano and the ash that it’s spread over northern Europe, grounding plans across the UK.

Volcanic Ash Could Hit Island 6pm TonightWell, the Met Office are predicting that the cloud of volcanic ash will be coming over the Isle of Wight by about 6pm this evening.

The Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC), which monitors this over nine centres around the world, must be working overtime and have issued maps predicting the movement of the clouds of ash.

Maps predict coverage
The lines on the map that the Met Office is distributing correspond to the height of the ash. Red shows the height to be between the ground and 20,000 feet; Green is 20k to 35k feet; Blue, 35k to 55k feet.

The simulation shows the Island engulfed by the Red line.

The predictions are that by midnight tonight, the Island will continue to be affected as the cloud continues to move south to Northern France.

Estimates of what will happen after that have not been calculated yet.

For background – the reason that planes have been grounded is that Volcanic ash jams machinery, including the engines. Not exactly what you want when you’re in a plane.

Many thanks to Chris for pointing this out to us.

Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC)

Click on the thumbnails to see larger versions.

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images: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres

Thursday, 15th April, 2010 12:49pm

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Filed under: Island-wide, Isle of Wight News, Travel

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49 Comments on "Volcanic Ash Could Be Over The Island 6pm Tonight"

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steve s

Volcanic ash!?
Quick, dinosaurs, hide!

Daft Old Duffer

First they stop us taking their cod.Then they pinch all our money.Now they’re using us as their ash-pit.
Are we seeing Iceland’s attempt at world domination?

isleofvibe

News said we would have it London 2 hours ago but nothing so far in Kensington.

Chris

there is very little to see from the ground, it simply isnt dense enough. should make for some spectacular sunsets though and should its neighbouring volcano ‘Katla’ go off then it should be a very interesting summer indeed…

Roger

Ash coming to the island? About time. I was getting fed up with the Arctic Monkeys.

Shobba

And Keane. Paul Weller’s been too often too.

Don Smith
My wife and I are due to fly to Tenerife on the 20.04.10. Disappointed if we have to cancel the holiday, however, I would not want to take any risks. We can go away any time, but I do feel so sorry for those who have had holidays and journeys cancelled, who can’t just pack and go. We need any wind except a Northerly one; we usually… Read more »
Shobba

It’ll be fine by then. Why do people always panic?
Personally I think it’s more likely David Pugh and Gordon Brown’s fault.

L PINKERTON

No, Turner did it.

Trevor

Didn’t seem to have any problems in the end. Anyone else experience the ash cloud?

Jon

Did anyone else see the 2 low flying buisness jets over sandown today? Presumably the low routes are still open over the island.

Mr Justice
I think this is a classic example of the madness of the modern world. Those in authority over-react and close half the worlds airspace. The aircraft that have previously ingested ash from volcanic eruptions flew almost over them. Ash is unlikely to present much of a risk, outside a very specific area. Still, nice quiet few days if you live near an airport and the greens will… Read more »
Jon
Ash is a very hazardous substance. have you ever been on the beach when its windy? felt sand blown against your skin? Now imagine that happening at 500 miles per hour. Aircraft flying through ash get sandblasted. Jet engines take in the ash and it sticks to the turbine blades, altering their shape and limiting their ability to suck air into the engine. The result is the… Read more »
Stewart Blackmore
You obviously pay no regard to the scientific evidence, Mr Justice. Ash is extremely dangerous as it melts in the aircraft engines at 1400 degrees celcius, turns into a glass like substance and closes the engines down. Mebbe you would be prepared to take that risk but, thank god, those who have the power have excercised it correctly, to the flying public’s great thanks. I fly regularly… Read more »
No.5

You choose to ignore the facts (you often do) that the ban is based on the experience of a 747 which flew through an ash cloude in the 90’s.

All four engines engines failed at 32,000 and the aircraft fell to 12,000 feet (it left the cloud at 15,000 ft and in the 3000 ft that followed the engines cleared.

Following this the laws where changed.

Blue Skies

Isn’t it wonderful to see brilliant blue sky without aircraft vapour trails obscuring the sun.

This phenomena was observed over New York after 911, when they banned aircraft movements for a few days.

Mr Justice

I don’t disagree with either of you on the science. But you have to fly through it for that to happen and it cannot be in anywhere near as large an area as the authorities claim. KLM say there is none in Northern Europe, it’s a terrible over-reaction causing untold misery for thousands.

PS You’re not health and safety officers are you?

Jon
Lets put it this way. If you have 500 people in a plane at 30,000 feet and there is the slightest chance the plane may crash when it could have been avoided would you risk it? Im not 100% sure on the quantities of ash that would be needed to stall an engine, but its not a large amount. As for planes having to fly direcly through… Read more »
No.5

Well KLM are lying

heres the size of the current cloud

http://www.radarvirtuel.com/

Joe
It seems to me that it is starting to look as if the authorities have over-reacted to this threat in our “health and safety” culture concious times. Lufthansa, Air Berlin, KLM, Air France and Britsh Airways have all been flying in this area today without any apparent damage. I see there’s a video conference of EU Transport ministers tomorrow and I expect they will be under heavy… Read more »
Jon
Im sure if you invent a replacement for the jet engine that can deal with volcanic ash you will be very popular. Something that could deal quite happily with particles of rock blasting against it would be an amazing invention. Unfortunately its not here yet, so we will have to continue with jets, and live with the fact that the most powerful force on the planet doesnt… Read more »
Ron Chonner
I blame Gordon Brown The Labour Government must have known for years about the potential danger from the Iceland Volcano and they have done nothing about it. I can’t even put my washing out in case it gets covered with ash. Bring back Margeret Thatcher. She would have soon sorted those Eskimosses out with an Exhibion Force like the Falklands. Anyway,why should we not stay at home… Read more »
Jon

What an idiotic comment. How would any government, labour or otherwise, do something about a volcano? And how exactly would they predict it? The worlds best geologists find it difficult to predict eruptions. And eskimos dont live in iceland. I certainly hope your comment is at least a little bit tounge in cheek.

islebeseeingyou

Someone somewhere seems to have lost their sense of humour! Got out of bed the wrong side?
Have a good day.

Jon

someone somewhere seems to be trying to goad me into a reaction I might regret. Sorry, it takes more than that to rile me. I would say have a good day, but I really dont care if you do or not.

Daft Old Duffer

Are all these guys idiots too Jon?
From the Time Magazine (paraphrased)
‘Politicians from across the continent (of Europe) lashed out…blasting the bureaucrats in Brussels for being out of their depth in responding to the chaos.Europe was ill-prepared for natural disasters,said German lawmaker Jo Leinen’
Perhaps the idiocy lays closer to home

Jon
well Im not calling the government response to the volcano idiotic. simply the notion that it could have been predicted years in advance and something done about it. We are talking about the most powerful force on the planet, and to suggest a government could in some way prevent a volcano erupting or change the wind direction is idiotic. To suggest they should have been better prepared… Read more »
Mo
I bet time proves our government totally over-reacted to this. With volcano’s worldwide erupting all the time we never hear of a total flight ban covering thousands of miles. It just doesn’t happen, but in barmy Britain our entire airspace was closed for a week. The department of transport then did nothing about those stuck overseas. Now after a week hoping it would all go away (the… Read more »
No.5
SIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Our government had nothing to do with the ban The skys are controlled by the NAS. They decide on safety grounds who flys and who doesn’t. It affected was Airspace over all of Northern Europe. A Royal Naval ship at Santander..there to pick up military personell also picked up 300 civilians…it wasn’t sent there for that job. Extra trains and ferrys were put on by the… Read more »
the rain in Spain
Maybe you shouldn’t beleive everything that Gordon Brown tells you.My family have been stuck in Spain since last Friday and we have no hope of getting on a plane until Saturday.There have been no coaches leaving Madrid that I am aware of.The ferries are booked solid and the roads to France choc-a -block.The Embassy have been of no help at all,advising us that if we decided not… Read more »
No.5

How is it Gordon Browns Fault?

Jon

but then your family could be dead in a plane crash if the airspace hadnt closed. puts a bit of inconvenience in perspective really doesnt it.

the rain in Spain

As usual,Jon,you miss the point.I am simply saying that the British govn are oftering little or no help to us who are stranded abroad.I suppose it easy for both you and No.5 tuck up safely on the Island.

Jon

I got your point. I was simply pointing out that things could be a hell of a lot worse, so maybe be greatful that the worse didnt happen

Jon
closing one of the busiest air spaces in the world was definately neccessary. Volcanoes worldwide do erupt, and local airspace closures do happen, we just dont hear about it because a lot of these eruptions are in out of the way places, and it also depends on the type of eruption. Some eruptions produce lots of lava but not much ash, some the other way round. Icelandic… Read more »
No.5

I’m just thankful that a ban was put in place quickly and we don’t have hundreds of even thousands of dead travellers scattered over northern Europe

Mo

I don’t know where you work, but you two should be working in health and safety. You often put me in mind of those two old men in the box on the muppet show. LOL. This was the biggest closure of airspace in the history of aviation. Time will tell if it was an over reaction.

Jon
its not about health and safety at all. Its about common sense. planes suffer damage and can crash if they fly through ash. Simple as that. Time has already told. look up some of the incidents involving ash that have happened in the past and then tell me it was an overreaction. Incidentally, when did health and safety become synonymous with overreaction? Good health and safety is… Read more »
Mo

I don’t think either of them go out much, they do always seem to be here posting and arguing with everyone.

Jon

ahh wondered when the personal comments would come.

Mo

So our airspace was safe enough for Lufthansa but not our airlines? Nonsense.
Its not my place, btt I think you should re name yourslef and N05 counterpoint 1 and 2. You do always take the exact opposite argument to everyone else here.

Jon
I would think thats a good thing. an opposing viewpoint focusses the mind. And incidentally, last night i did disagree with something No. 5 said. So please dont lump us both together. As for Lufthansa, if they flew below the altitude restrictions they would be fine. Remember, this was not a compleate airspace closure, simply closure above a certain altitude, which happens to be the altitudes that… Read more »
No.5
No airplanes from Northern Europe were allowed to fly in the airspace between 20,000 and 30,000 ft. They could fly over it, under it, but not through it…which means they couldn’t land. Lufthansa nor Germany had any control over its planes flying..when the Authority says no flying…there is no flying All these deatils have been on the news every day..somehow you seemed to have missed it. Or… Read more »
Jon

Lufthansa did do the same as BA and do a test flight. But they certainly didnt do it with passengers onboard. They also relocated some planes, but I would imagine they did that at under 20000 feet.

Mr Justice

Oh dear, tweedle-dum and tweedle-dee were wrong. Lord Adonis, the Labour transport bloke admits they got it wrong. Mo is right, the six day ban was quite obviously disproportionate. This isn’t even a big volcano!

N0.5
Wrong again…and know where near an accurate precise of his statement. He actually said that the Government had been wrong to not press for the decision to be over-ruled but there had been in-sufficient data…which has been acknowledged and agreed with by the air authority. Governments cannot over-rule the Authorities desicions,they only pressure them to do so. Its the biggest Volcano to erupt in Northern Europe since… Read more »
N0.5
Heres the report “The question the airline industry is asking is why did it take six days for the Civil Aviation Authority to change its policy, and what does it know now that it did not know a week ago. Part of the problem faced by the regulator is that there is a limited evidence base with which to make an accurate risk assessment. Such occurrences are… Read more »
Jon
seems obvious to me that the right thing was done. Close the airspace first for safety, then gather evidence and consult with manufacturers to reach an informed decision on the risk. No doubt Mr Justice would rather they proved that the ash was dangerous by allowing planes to crash before they closed the airspace. To be fair, i dont think its spin so much as ignorance and… Read more »
N0.5

Nobody has been killed in a horrific incident.

would the only thing thats would satisfy these dirty tactic spin doctors be a major incident with hundreds of people dead?