A recent YouGov/Times ‘vote intention poll’ shows nationally that the Labour Party would have 54 per cent of the vote if an election were held tomorrow, whilst the Conservative Party dropped to 21 per cent of the vote.
YouGov said the 33 point lead was the largest Labour had recorded in any published poll since the late 1990s.
This data was taken by Election Maps UK and represented in map form, predicting that the Isle of Wight would switch from Conservative (which it has been since 2001) to Labour (who have never held a seat in Parliament).
Their prediction
Their prediction was for Labour to have a 3,212 majority. Quite a swing around from the 2019 election.
Their numbers broke down as: Conservative with 33.7% (-22.5%); Labour 38.1% (+13.8%); LibDem 1.4% (+1.4%); Green 19.8% (+4.6%); Reform 3.2% (+3.2%) and others 3.8% (-0.5%)
Previous majority
Many will find this surprising news given the current Isle of Wight MP, Conservative Bob Seely, won the seat with a 23,772 majority in the 2019 election.
The Labour Party candidate, Richard Quigley – who is now a county councillor for Cowes North – won 18,078 votes, a huge rise from previous elections.
What do the politicians think?
News OnTheWight asked Bob Seely and Richard Quigley what they thought of the poll.
Richard told News OnTheWight,
“The election maps UK analysis is very encouraging for Labour supporters here on the Island. We increased our vote and vote share in 2019, against a national backdrop of a falling Labour vote.
“The current polls reflect a Labour party gaining popularity, but also reflect that decent people are seeing the current version of the Tory party for what it really is. This government and its representative here, Bob Seely, won’t ever deliver for Islanders.”
Although he was able to get in touch about something else earlier this week, it took Bob a couple of days to respond to News OnTheWight. He said,
“There is no election at the moment. In the meantime, I will continue getting a better deal for the Island.
“We’ve managed to deliver a great deal to the Island, but there is always more to do, and if people would like me to keep working hard for the Island, I’d be delighted and privileged to do so.”
Two constituencies
The Boundary Commission for England will be launching their third and final consultation next month on constituency boundary changes.
The review is recommending splitting the constituency into two seats, East and West Wight. Their final recommendations will be submitted to Parliament by July 2023, so it is possible that by the next general election in 2024, there will be two seats up for grabs.
Article edit
7.21pm 7th Oct 2023 – Added the numbers behind Election Maps UK prediction
