News OnTheWight has been taking a detailed look at Covid data after readers wondered what the numbers after large scale events, such as Isle of Wight Festival and Cowes Week, would be like.
This week has seen a steep rise in the latest stats for the seven-day rolling total of positive Covid-19 tests on the Isle of Wight, now 622 compared to last week’s 371 – but what about the previous couple of months’ data.
Why are we using the seven-day rolling total? They give a much better way of understanding the trends of the data – it smooths out the spikes of looking at the daily numbers.
Spikes in positive tests
As you can see from the graph below, there was a peak in positive tests about two and a half weeks after Cowes Week (31st July-6th August), which gradually fell off over the next two weeks. There was a slight rise when the schools went back, but that dropped again in the following weeks.
However, after the Isle of Wight Festival (16th-19th Sept), the figures seem to taken off more promptly, but not so aggressively. If the trend is similar to Cowes Week, it looks like the Island has still not peaked.
Looking at the data
The graph below, which you can mouse-over to see rolling weekly totals for specific dates, shows the trend since the end of July to end of September.
Rise in hospital admissions
The surge in numbers following Isle of Wight Festival – which saw what was generally thought to be 40-50,000 people at Seaclose Park – was anticipated by Maggie Oldham, the Chief Executive of Isle of Wight NHS Trust.
The week before the Festival she’d warned of an expected increase of Covid cases on the already stretched health services and as anticipated, September saw a rise in the number of hospital admissions.
Although several wards were closed due to rising Covid cases, at one point St Mary’s Hospital reported that positive patients accounted for 20 per cent of hospital beds.
Rising number of deaths
September also saw a rise in the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive test, with 19 deaths recorded. The patients were aged between 54 to 94 with underlying health conditions.
Last month’s figures were a steep rise compared to during the holiday season of where there were five deaths August, and just one in July.
The cumulative total number of deaths within 28 days of positive test on the Isle of Wight is 281.
Our thoughts are with all those who have lost loved ones.
Image: Mufid Majnun under CC BY 2.0
