Reform UK would win the most Isle of Wight Council seats out of any party, according to two predictions ahead of the 7th May 2026 local elections. These are just predictions and not always accurate.
The forecasts from PollCheck and Britain Votes Now come as Nigel Farage’s party continues to top national polls, with POLITICO’s poll of polls putting it on 25 per cent of the vote as of Friday, 24th April 2026.
County Hall currently has 13 Conservative councillors, 11 from the Alliance including two Greens, four non-aligned independents and four Liberal Democrats. There are also three Empowering Islanders representatives, two Very Broad Church independents and one Labour councillor.
What PollCheck predicts for the Isle of Wight
PollCheck projects Reform winning 26 wards and unseating senior figures such as Alliance group leader Phil Jordan and committee chairs including Karen Lucioni, Paul Brading, Debbie Andre and Julie Jones-Evans.
The political data site has the Conservatives on three seats, the Greens winning two, Labour and the Liberal Democrats losing all their councillors, seven independents and one Vectis Party gain.
PollCheck says its projections are built from national polling data, local election history and demographic modelling, not ward-level surveys.
It also notes that independent candidates are ‘inherently difficult’ to model from national data and states actual results ‘may vary significantly’.
Britain Votes Now offers a different picture
Britain Votes Now meanwhile forecasts the election of 18 Reform councillors, 12 independents, four Liberal Democrats, three Greens, one Conservative and one Labour member.
Under the website’s prediction, councillors Jordan and Lucioni hold onto their seats, but in Ventnor and St Lawrence, Conservative group leader Ed Blake loses to independent candidate Linda Jefferies.
Britain Votes Now lists demographics, local political context and polling as the basis of its analysis.
Where the national polls stand
POLITICO’s national poll of polls aggregates voting intention data from external polling firms.
As of 24th April 2026, it has Reform on 25 per cent, the Green Party, Labour and Conservatives with 17 per cent of the vote each, the Liberal Democrats garnering 12 per cent and four per cent for Restore Britain.
How to view the full predictions
PollCheck can be accessed on their website and Britain Votes Now on theirs.
This article is from the BBC’s LDRS (Local Democracy Reporter Service) scheme, which News OnTheWight is taking part in. Some alterations and additions may have been made by OnTheWight. Ed
