Reform UK would take both Isle of Wight parliamentary seats if voters went to the polls tomorrow, according to new projections from YouGov.
Using its large-scale MRP model, based on responses from 13,000 people across the country, YouGov predicts Reform will secure Isle of Wight West with 35 per cent of the vote and Isle of Wight East with 34 per cent.
YouGov said ‘high levels of uncertainty and volatility’ are ‘now the norm in British electoral politics’. Its September 2025 MRP results are ‘no different in that regard’, it added.
An early election?
Although the next General Election is scheduled to be held no later than Wednesday 15th August 2029, some political pundits are suggesting a vote of no confidence in the current Labour leader, Keir Starmer, could bring the prospect of an election closer.
The results of the poll are as follows:
Isle of Wight East
- Reform UK: 34 per cent
- Conservatives: 21 per cent
- Green Party: 20 per cent
- Liberal Democrats: 12 per cent
- Labour: 11 per cent
- Other: Two per cent
Isle of Wight West
- Reform UK: 35 per cent
- Labour: 24 per cent
- Conservatives: 17 per cent
- Green Party: 11 per cent
- Liberal Democrats: 11 per cent
- Other: Three per cent
IW West results seem to add up to 101% based on the data provided by YouGov.
What the Island’s political parties have to say
Councillor Bill Nigh, Reform UK county councillor for Lake North, said,
“The latest YouGov poll reflects what I have been hearing time and again on the doorsteps of Island residents during my election campaigns over the last few months.
“The Isle of Wight is demanding change. Based on these polls and on what people have said to me directly we will be looking to take control of this council and both parliamentary constituencies. This is a clear message that people on the Island have had enough and they want Reform.”
Labour: MRP polling models should be interpreted with caution
Phil Attfield, vice-chair of the Isle of Wight Constituency Labour Party, said Isle of Wight Labour acknowledged YouGov’s findings which “reflects widespread public frustration with the status quo, particularly the failures of successive Conservative governments”.
He said,
“While polling models like MRP offer useful insights, they are not forecasts and should be interpreted with caution — especially so far from a scheduled election.
“However, it also highlights the volatility of voter sentiment and the risks of protest voting. Reform UK’s rise is built on disillusionment, not on a coherent plan for the Island or the country.
“We urge voters to look beyond slogans and ask what Reform UK would actually do for the Island. Labour offers a credible alternative, grounded in values of social justice, economic renewal, and democratic accountability.”
Green 1% away from leapfrogging Conservatives to second place
Councillor Vix Lowthion, the Green Party’s candidate for Isle of Wight East at last year’s general election and chair of Newport and Carisbrooke Community Council, said,
“The collapse of the two-party system has meant that the polls are shifting at such an alarming rate.
“In the last month, the Green Party has a new leader, and membership is skyrocketing as voters agree with our stance on fairness and justice.
“We have been very disappointed in the Labour government, but we are even more excited about our prospects in Isle of Wight East next time – the YouGov projected poll has us only two per cent away from leapfrogging the Conservatives with Greens into second place as the direct challenger to Reform.
“Much to play for before another general election. We welcome more members to join us – and make hope normal again.”
Conservative:
Joe Robertson, the Conservative MP for Isle of Wight East, said,
“MRP polls have been proven to be inaccurate. They predicted a Labour win in East Wight at the last general election and Labour came fourth.
“I will continue to work in the best interests of the Island, working with local residents, community groups and other elected people, cross-party.
“Residents of the East Wight will then deliver their verdict through the ballot box at the next general election which is the only poll that matters.”
This article is from the BBC’s LDRS (Local Democracy Reporter Service) scheme, which News OnTheWight is taking part in. Some alterations and additions may have been made by OnTheWight. Ed
