Not long ago the Isle of Wight was one of only three places in the UK to be placed in the lightest Covid restricted area – Tier 1. This has, over a short number of weeks, changed substantially, first with the jump straight up to Tier 3, then today, to Tier 4.
Here at News OnTheWight we thought it would be worth looking deeper into the official Government figures to understand what (might) have led to this change. They say there are a number of items they consider when deciding on Tiering.
Understanding the data
The Government-provided figures we’re looking at are the number of Covid-positive tests, totalled over a 7-day period (jump to table) – this gives a more balanced view than looking at daily changing figures. These are the figures from the ‘Specimen date’ – ie, the data is attributed to the date the test (specimen) is taken.
National government divide the Isle of Wight into eighteen different areas (They call them MSOA, ‘Middle-Layer Super Output Areas’).
Digging into the data
Digging into the slew of data that is provided centrally, it’s the 7-day rolling rate of new cases by specimen date ending on a weekly date, that gives the total number of cases (people living in the area that have received a positive result in a Covid test); the size of the rise in cases from the previous week; this rise expressed as a percentage; and the Rolling rate per 100k rate.
The last in that list is a way of trying to give a figure that takes account for the size of the population of an area – ie, if there were 100k people living here, the number of people testing positive would be X. Not perfect of course, but a better way to understand the size of the number of cases – a country-wide comparison.
Cowes Central
There are no two ways about it, the stand out area for this data (seven-days up to 25th December) is Cowes Central. With the latest area breakdown figures available, it has, by far, the highest number of Covid cases.
All we can do is look at the information available to us, this doesn’t give any clue as to why these figures are high for the Isle of Wight just that they are.
Swiftly rising
Looking at the figures in Cowes Central over December, we can see that at the start of the month there were two cases, a week later it had risen slightly to three. A week later, the figure had leapt to 22. The seven day period ending Christmas Day, the number had nearly doubled again, to 43.
In percentage terms: the rises over those weeks have been: 50%; 633% and 96%.
| Date | No. cases, 7 days | Rise in cases | % rise | Cases per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Dec 2020 | 43 | 21 | 96% | 545 |
| 18 Dec 2020 | 22 | 19 | 633% | 279 |
| 11 Dec 2020 | 3 | 1 | 50% | 38 |
| 4 Dec 2020 | 2 | 25 |
The mid-2019 ONS estimate of the number of people who live in Cowes Central was 7,885, ranking it as 10th in size against the 18 Isle of Wight areas.
Highest rates on the Island
One way of understanding the infection rate is to look at the numbers per 100,000, as this balances the number of cases, with the size of population of the area. For Cowes Central, this is 545, well above average for England.
Looking at the cases per 100k, the top five areas on the Island are:
| Area | Cases per 100k |
|---|---|
| Cowes Central | 545 |
| Ryde Central | 325 |
| Ryde West & Havenstreet | 292 |
| Cowes West, Gurnard & Northwood | 267 |
| Newport East & Parkhurst East | 237 |
Lowest rates
At the other end of the spectrum, the lowest are:
| Area | Cases per 100k |
|---|---|
| Brighstone & Shalfleet | 76 |
| Niton, Shorwell & Godshill | 87 |
| Ventnor & Wroxall | 93 |
| Yarmouth & Freshwater | 127 |
| Bembridge & Nettlestone | 148 |
During this period, we’re told by central government that a new strain of Covid has been circulating – a strain which is far more contagious.
Area rising the fastest
It might seem that using the officially-supplied percentage rise would be the best way to judge which areas are rising the fastest, however, where an area has gone from a relatively low number of cases to a high number the percentage can distort perceptions.
Although Cowes Central tops the tables for number of people testing positive, it ‘only’ has a 95% rise, as we’ve seen above, it has ‘only’ doubled from 21 to 43 in the last two periods.
In an attempt to provide a more relevant scale, News OnTheWight has calculated the rise per 100k, so taking the rise in cases over the previous 7-days, referencing the size of the area’s population.
| Area | Rise per 100k |
|---|---|
| Ryde Central | 294 |
| Cowes Central | 266 |
| Ryde West & Havenstreet | 229 |
| Newport Central & Parkhurst West | 197 |
| Ryde South | 194 |
Slowest rising areas
Conversely, the slowest rising areas are:
| Area | Rise per 100k |
|---|---|
| Cowes West, Gurnard & Northwood | 35 |
| Niton, Shorwell & Godshill | 52 |
| Brighstone & Shalfleet | 57 |
| Newport South & West | 62 |
| Ventnor & Wroxall | 66 |
IW overview
Below is all of the data, covering each of the 18 Isle of Wight areas, for the 7-days ending the 25th December 2020. Click on the top of each column to sort.
| Area | Total cases | Rise in cases | % rise | Rolling per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bembridge & Nettlestone | 11 | 7 | 175% | 148 |
| Binstead & Wootton | 14 | 12 | 600% | 206 |
| Brighstone & Shalfleet | 4 | 3 | 300% | 76 |
| Cowes Central | 43 | 21 | 95% | 545 |
| Cowes West, Gurnard & Northwood | 23 | 3 | 15% | 267 |
| East Cowes & Osborne | 15 | 7 | 88% | 202 |
| Newport Central & Parkhurst West | 18 | 16 | 800% | 221 |
| Newport East & Parkhurst East | 20 | 9 | 82% | 237 |
| Newport South & West | 19 | 6 | 46% | 198 |
| Niton, Shorwell & Godshill | 5 | 3 | 150% | 87 |
| Ryde Central | 21 | 19 | 950% | 325 |
| Ryde South | 19 | 17 | 850% | 217 |
| Ryde West & Havenstreet | 23 | 18 | 360% | 292 |
| Sandown & Brading | 16 | 8 | 100% | 170 |
| Shanklin Central & Lake | 20 | 8 | 67% | 224 |
| Shanklin West & Newchurch | 13 | 6 | 86% | 164 |
| Ventnor & Wroxall | 7 | 5 | 250% | 93 |
| Yarmouth & Freshwater | 12 | 10 | 500% | 127 |
Image: thenationalguard under CC BY 2.0
